Dirk Nowitzki Scores his 20,000th Point

Dirk Nowitzki has crossed another milestone. The German power forward is easily the greatest NBA player from his country and now he is moving up the list of all-time NBA scorers.

Currently he ranks as number 34 on the list of career scorers. He is only 31 years old so you have to imagine that he will score at his current pace for at least two more seasons. Being seven foot tall means that he doesn’t rely on his legs as much in his jump shot, so he shouldn’t wear down as much as a guard.

So if he does score around 25 points per game the next two seasons he should be at around 25,000 points at 33 years old (he will probably score another 1,000 this season, plus another 2,000 per year). That will put him ahead of Patrick Ewing at around 17th place all time (Allen Iverson should jump ahead of Ewing by then).

So if he slows down to about 20 points per game the next two seasons (taking him to 35 years old). That would mean he would score another 3200 points those years, putting him around 28,200 points. Assuming that both Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant have passed that point, that would put Nowitzki at around 7th place, just above Moses Malone.

To round out his career, lets just say he averages 12 points per game up to 38 years old, another 3 years. That would give him around 31,000 points. That would put him in around 6th place (assuming Kobe gets in top three by then and that Shaq does not score more than 3000 more points). It would also mean that he would be very close to passing Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain on the list and getting into the top four.

So how realistic is this, I’m not completely sure, but the math works. In fact if he plays to 40 years old then I think he catches MJ and Wilt.  I would say that if no career altering injury occurs, then I would bet a lot of money on him hitting at least 30,000 career points and having a date to the Hall-of-Fame.

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